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ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 total revenue was $18.84M, up 8.2% year over year; net product revenue was $18.09M, while adjusted net loss was $28.68M; GAAP EPS was $(0.50) versus $(0.38) in Q2 2024 as restructuring and higher R&D lifted operating costs .
  • Against Wall Street consensus, ADCT posted a revenue beat and an EPS miss: Revenue $18.84M vs $17.86M consensus; EPS $(0.50) vs $(0.48) consensus; the top-line beat was driven by price and volume variability, while bottom line was pressured by $13.1M restructuring and impairments and higher LOTIS-5/7 and PSMA IND activities (*Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Clinical momentum continued: LOTIS-7 (ZYNLONTA + glofitamab) showed ORR 93.3% and CR 86.7% across 30 efficacy-evaluable patients with manageable safety; enrollment expansion to 100 patients at 150 µg/kg is underway; FDA engagement and a second-half update are planned .
  • LOTIS-5 remains on track to reach prespecified PFS events by year-end 2025 with top-line data to follow; sBLA submission anticipated in H1 2026; compendia inclusion targeted in H1 2027 .
  • Liquidity strengthened via a $100M PIPE (net $93.1M), extending expected cash runway into 2028—a key stock catalyst alongside LOTIS-5 top-line and LOTIS-7 updates in H2 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • LOTIS-7 efficacy and tolerability: ORR 93.3%, CR 86.7%; 25 of 26 CRs remained at cutoff; CRS/ICANS largely Grade 1–2 with lower CRS at 150 µg/kg; supports expansion to 100 patients and potential compendia strategy .
  • Solid revenue execution: Net product revenue of $18.09M (+6.2% YoY); total revenue $18.84M (+8.2% YoY), aided by higher sales price and volume variability; CFO reiterated revenue growth opportunity tied to expansion trials .
  • Strengthened balance sheet and runway: $93.1M net proceeds from PIPE financing extended cash runway into 2028, enabling pursuit of clinical catalysts and commercialization readiness .

Management quotes:

  • “We recently shared impressive efficacy data from our LOTIS-7 study… and have additional key clinical milestones anticipated through 2026.” — CEO Ameet Mallik .
  • “Overall we believe we have multiple value driving catalysts within our cash runway which is expected to extend into 2028.” — CFO Jose Carmona .

What Went Wrong

  • Elevated operating expenses and GAAP loss: Q2 total operating expenses were $62.99M; GAAP net loss widened to $(56.65)M, driven by $13.1M restructuring/impairment and higher R&D related to LOTIS-5/7 and PSMA IND enabling activities .
  • EPS miss vs consensus: GAAP EPS of $(0.50) fell short of $(0.48) consensus as restructuring and R&D outweighed the revenue beat; adjusted net loss rose to $28.68M from $24.37M in Q2 2024 (*Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Business rationalization: Discontinuation of early preclinical programs and planned UK facility closure (≈30% workforce reduction) reflect strategic refocus but near-term execution risk and severance/impairment costs .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$16.91 $23.03 $18.84
Net Product Revenue ($USD Millions)$16.39 $17.40 $18.09
GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(30.73) $(38.60) $(56.65)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.29) $(0.36) $(0.50)
Adjusted Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(26.48) $(23.96) $(28.68)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$49.35 $51.50 $62.99
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$250.87 $194.70 $264.56

Estimates vs Actuals

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)$19.01M*$17.71M*$17.86M*
Revenue Actual ($USD)$16.91M $23.03M $18.84M
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)$(0.412)*$(0.403)*$(0.477)*
GAAP Diluted EPS Actual ($USD)$(0.29) $(0.36) $(0.50)
Revenue – # of Estimates6*6*5*
EPS – # of Estimates6*6*6*

Margins (S&P Global)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Net Income Margin %(181.71%)*(167.59%)*N/A*
EBITDA Margin %(189.80%)*(122.09%)*(162.93%)*

S&P Global disclaimer: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Clinical KPIs (DLBCL, efficacy-focused)

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
LOTIS-7 (ZYNLONTA+glofitamab) ORR94% (18 efficacy-evaluable) 95.5% (22 efficacy-evaluable) 93.3% (30 efficacy-evaluable)
LOTIS-7 CR Rate72% 90.9% 86.7%; 25/26 CRs maintained
LOTIS-5 safety run-in ORR/CRN/AN/AORR 80%, CR 50%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
LOTIS-5 PFS events timing2025 YEReach by end of 2025 Reach by end of 2025; top-line after data ready Maintained
LOTIS-5 sBLA submissionH1 2026Anticipated H1 2026 Anticipated H1 2026 Maintained
LOTIS-7 update & FDA engagementH2 2025Update and engage FDA in H2 2025 Engage FDA; H2 2025 update; expand to 100 patients at 150 µg/kg Maintained/Expanded operational detail
Compendia inclusion targetsH1 2027Anticipated H1 2027 with sufficient data Anticipated H1 2027 (LOTIS-5 and LOTIS-7) Maintained
Cash runway2H 2026Into 2H 2026 Into 2028 post $100M PIPE (net $93.1M) Raised
Restructuring completionSep 30, 2025N/A~30% workforce reduction; UK facility closure by 9/30/25 New operational guidance

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024)Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
LOTIS-7 efficacy/safetyInitial data: ORR 94%, CR 72%; tolerability; plan 40-patient expansion Abstract: ORR 95.5%, CR 90.9%; 40 patients enrolled; H2 2025 update ORR 93.3%, CR 86.7%; lower CRS at 150 µg/kg; expand to 100; FDA engagement Strengthening efficacy with maturing safety; expansion underway
LOTIS-5 timeline & endpointsEnrollment complete; safety run-in encouraging; PFS events in late 2025 On track; top-line after events Reaffirmed; top-line post data cleaning; sBLA H1 2026 On track; regulatory clarity
Indolent lymphomas (MZL/FL)Strong IIT data; Lancet Haematology publication for FL ICML MZL update planned MZL ORR 84.6%, CR 69.2% presented; regulatory pathway under assessment Advancing toward potential compendia/regulatory paths
Competitive landscape (CAR-T/bispecifics)Bispecifics ~1/3 share; ZYNLONTA holds $16–18M quarterly range Positioning dual approach (R-chemo-alternative and bispecific combo) Discussed Roche CRL; complementary profiles for 2L+ segments Nuanced market; strategic positioning
Financing & runwayCash $250.9M; runway 2H 2026 Runway 2H 2026 $100M PIPE; runway into 2028 Materially improved
Restructuring & focusOpex reductions in 2024 Discontinued ADCT-602; preclinical focus ~30% workforce reduction; UK closure; preclinical discontinuations Sharpened focus; near-term cost impacts

Management Commentary

  • “Taken together, we believe ZYNLONTA has the potential to reach peak revenues of $600,000,000 to $1,000,000,000 in the U.S.” — CEO Ameet Mallik (prepared remarks) .
  • “Total first half net product revenue was $35.5M… restructuring and impairment costs in Q2 consisted of $6.7M severance and $6.4M non-cash impairments from UK facility closure.” — CFO Jose Carmona .
  • “We believe ZYNLONTA plus glofitamab has the potential to be the preferred bispecific combination in 2L+ DLBCL.” — CEO Ameet Mallik .

Q&A Highlights

  • Roche CRL impact on glofitamab in 2L DLBCL: Management cannot comment on CRL specifics; maintains confidence in unmet need and LOTIS-5/7 positioning; LOTIS-5 is large (n=420), 90% powered versus R-GemOx with assumed ~2-month PFS delta; OS maturity at top-line uncertain .
  • Durability in LOTIS-7: CRs viewed as strong durability biomarker; future updates to show swimmers plots and median DOR at 6 and 12 months; early data show 25/26 CRs maintained with longest >1 year .
  • Regulatory and communication plan: Will engage FDA later this year regarding LOTIS-7 paths (2L or frontline); H2 2025 data update may be company-led or at a congress to optimize follow-up length .
  • Indolent lymphomas strategy: MZL IIT target ~50 patients; CR ≥40% would stand out versus ~29% historical; prefer monotherapy given high efficacy and tolerability in indolent settings; bispecific combos not needed currently .
  • Commercial footprint: Field coverage at ~90% of DLBCL opportunity; MSLs to respond to physician inquiries on LOTIS-7; no planned commercial collaboration with Roche; pre-launch resource additions expected .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025: Revenue $18.84M vs $17.86M consensus — significant beat; GAAP EPS $(0.50) vs $(0.48) consensus — modest miss, driven by restructuring charges and elevated R&D tied to LOTIS-5/7 and PSMA IND work (*Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Q1 2025: Revenue $23.03M vs $17.71M consensus — beat on milestone/license revenues; EPS $(0.36) vs $(0.40) consensus — beat; highlights quarterly variability tied to milestones (*Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Q4 2024: Revenue $16.91M vs $19.01M consensus — miss; EPS $(0.29) vs $(0.41) consensus — beat, aided by lower opex and other items (*Values retrieved from S&P Global).
    Implication: Street likely revises near-term EPS higher on reduced restructuring drag but remains focused on LOTIS-5/7 binary catalysts for revenue trajectory; revenue estimates may inch up on sustained pricing/mix and compendia prospects.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The quarter delivered a clean top-line beat and clinical validation in LOTIS-7; the modest EPS miss is explainable by one-time restructuring and stepped-up clinical investment — not thesis-breaking (*Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • LOTIS-5 top-line in late 2025 is the key derisking event; trial design (n=420, 90% power vs R-GemOx) targets clinically meaningful PFS delta; a positive read could enable sBLA in H1 2026 and expand addressable market materially .
  • LOTIS-7 combination is emerging as best-in-class on ORR/CR with favorable CRS at 150 µg/kg; expansion to 100 patients and FDA interactions in H2 2025 set the stage for compendia inclusion and potential rapid physician adoption post-publication .
  • Liquidity extended to 2028 via PIPE removes financing overhang into major catalysts; focus has tightened via restructuring, improving operating leverage prospects post LOTIS-5 .
  • Near-term trading: Expect price sensitivity around H2 2025 LOTIS-7 update quality (durability, safety) and any early regulatory feedback; positioning ahead of LOTIS-5 event read may benefit risk-tolerant investors given asymmetric upside .
  • Medium-term thesis: Dual-path expansion (R-chemo alternative via LOTIS-5 and bispecific combo via LOTIS-7) addresses both accessible and complex care segments; management’s $600M–$1B peak revenue potential requires successful regulatory and compendia outcomes with durable efficacy and manageable safety .
  • Watch items: Clarity on OS data in LOTIS-5, compendia timelines, LOTIS-7 longer follow-up durability, and indolent lymphomas regulatory strategy; field force scaling and payer dynamics will influence ramp pace .